Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, foresees a dramatic rise in Bitcoin’s value, projecting it to hit $200,000 by 2025. He highlights political changes, rising ETF inflows, and inflation as the key factors behind this surge.
Political Changes Could Drive Bitcoin’s Price Higher
In an interview, Geoff Kendrick expressed his firm belief that Bitcoin could rise to $200,000, regardless of the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential elections. According to Kendrick, the political landscape in the U.S. holds significant potential to impact the crypto market. One critical factor is the potential repeal of the “Staff Accounting Bulletin -121” (SAB-121) regulation, which has been in place since March 2022. This directive currently mandates that banks disclose the crypto assets they hold on their balance sheets, significantly limiting the amount of digital assets they can maintain.
Although Congress has already voted in favor of repealing this regulation, President Biden's veto has prevented any changes from being enacted. However, Kendrick anticipates that under a new administration, whether led by Trump or Harris, this regulation would likely be overturned. This would open the door for institutional investors and banks to hold larger quantities of Bitcoin, which could drive up demand and, consequently, the price.
U.S. Bitcoin ETFs: A Crucial Price Catalyst
Another crucial factor behind the expected Bitcoin price surge, according to Kendrick, is the growing inflow of capital into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs. While these ETF inflows cooled off in 2024 after a strong first half of the year, Kendrick remains optimistic that they will pick up again in the fourth quarter. Such capital inflows have historically played a significant role in pushing Bitcoin prices higher.
In fact, in March 2024, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $73,700, largely fueled by consistent ETF inflows. Kendrick believes this pattern could repeat, propelling Bitcoin to new price levels. He stresses that ETFs continue to play a key role in the crypto market, offering institutional investors easy access to Bitcoin and other digital assets.
Inflation and a Potential Trump Victory as Additional Catalysts
Besides political shifts and ETF inflows, Kendrick also points to rising inflation expectations as a major driver of Bitcoin's future price. In times of economic uncertainty and rising inflation, investors often seek out safe-haven assets. Bitcoin, often dubbed “digital gold,” could increasingly serve this role, gaining popularity as a hedge against inflation.
Kendrick also speculates that a potential Trump victory in the upcoming U.S. elections could push Bitcoin’s price to $125,000 by the end of this year. Trump’s favorable stance on cryptocurrencies has earned him a loyal following within the crypto community. His anti-regulation approach and support for decentralization would, according to Kendrick, provide additional momentum for Bitcoin.
Furthermore, Kendrick speculates that a Trump victory could result in the ousting of SEC Chair Gary Gensler, who has been known for his stringent approach to regulating cryptocurrencies. A new SEC chair could bring more regulatory clarity to the crypto market, fostering further growth. Kendrick suggests that this change could also accelerate the approval of new spot ETFs, including Solana spot ETFs, boosting institutional adoption and market growth.
